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Projected Outcome
What is a Projected Outcome in HEA?
This is the last, and crucial, step in the analytical framework, translating the shock into terms that allow decision makers to take approrpiate action. Once the problem or problems have been defined, and the ability of households to cope on their own has been analyzed, the final picture is compared to two important intervention triggers: the Survival and the Livelihoods Protection Thresholds. These are levels below which an intervention of some kind - whether food or non-food - is warranted in order to save livelihoods and lives, respectively.
Why is it necessary?
Humanitarian decision makers need significant lead time in order to plan a response. Early planning saves money and even lives. HEA Outcome Analysis can give a six- to nine-month head start for emergency response planning, thereby helping to curb the worst of any slow-onset disaster's effects. By having this analysis in place ahead of time, relevant indicators and assumptions can be monitored, and the magnitude or targeting of the response can be refined as the hunger period approaches.
Outcome Analysis can also be used for running policy scenarios, or for project input planning, and to set up or refine a Monitoring and Evaluation framework.
