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Avian Influenza
In countries from Asia to Europe to Africa. a pathogenic strain of the H5N1 avian influenza (AI) virus has emerged. In general, preparations have focused on putting in place an infrastructure to screen and identify viral outbreaks, and then to contain its spread through patient treatment as well as through the aggressive culling of poultry.
FEG Consulting provides a complementary angle to health concerns. Our approach is to identify the likely livelihood impacts of an AI outbreak. Although the ubiquitous "backyard" chicken operation seen in Africa and Asia is not the main food and income source for rural farmers, chickens provide some income, especially for women. The potential loss of this income to women and their families is important to investigate. The results can provide key insights for the design of compensation packages.
FEG's approach is to inquire about AI effects using the robust Household Economy Analysis (HEA) framework. Central to all HEA inquiries is an investigation of production, income and expenditure patterns for various wealth groups in a particular livelihood zone. In countries where livelihood baseline data is already available, FEG can quickly run a series of scenarios to determine the likely impact of an AI outbreak on livelihoods. Our impact analysis tools can help predict how income and spending patterns will change given the severity of the predicted outbreak. Further village-level inquiry can bring out the particular implications for women addressing in more detail how much income they earn, what they buy with the cash, and what options they have to make up potential income losses.
In 2006, FEG ran some best, moderate and worst case scenarios of a possible AI outbreak in Ethiopia's Southern Nation, Nationalities and People's (SNNP) Region. Click here to see this Ethiopian case study.